XML

Seoul Journal of Economics - Vol. 22 , No. 1

[ Article ]
Seoul Journal of Economics - Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 29-54
Abbreviation: SJE
ISSN: 1225-0279 (Print)
Print publication date 28 Feb 2009
Received 23 Nov 2008 Revised 15 Feb 2009

Krugman and Young Revisited: A Survey of the Sources of Productivity Growth in a World with Less Constraints
Robin C. Sickles ; Burcu Cigerli
Professor, Reginald Henry Hargrove Chair in Economics, Department of Economics, Rice University, Texas, USA 77005, Tel: +1-713-348-3322, Fax: +1-713-348-5278 (rsickles@rice.edu)
Graduate Student, Department of Economics, Rice University, Texas, USA 77005, Tel: +1-713-348-8411, Fax: +1-713-348-5278 (burcu.cigerli@rice.edu)

JEL Classification: C5, C8, O2, O3, O5, O11


Abstract

Young (1994) and Kim and Lau (1994), among others, argue that the “Asian Miracle” of relatively high growth was largely due to increases in factor inputs. Productivity growth would eventually slow because of diminishing returns to factors. Thus total factor productivity growth was not the reason for the Asian Miracle. Krugman (1994) summarized this research, comparing the growth experience of Singapore, among the other Asian Tigers, to that of the Soviet Union and argued that there was reason to expect a similar outcome, namely a collapse of the political institutions due to economic stagnation. Interestingly, Krugman consistently refers to efficiency growth and technical progress as equivalent terms. In this paper and survey we discuss alternative explanations for economic growth in Asia as well as elsewhere in the world in the post WWII years. The alternative explanation is explicit in Krugman's treatise. It is economic growth due to a world with less constraints.


Keywords: Total factor productivity growth, East Asia, Efficiency change

Acknowledgments

This paper was prepared for the 16thSJE-KERI-KIF International Symposium on “Productivity, Growth and Trade in East Asia,” November 27, 2008, Seoul National University, Korea. The authors would like to thank Byung Sam Yoo and Keunkwan Ryu for their constructive comments on the survey and Hak K. Pyo for his support and interest in our research. The usual caveat applies.


References
1. Abramovitz, M. “Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind.” Journal of Economic History 46 (No. 2 1986): 385-406.
2. Ahmed, E. M. Effects of Information and Communications Technology On ASEAN5 Plus 3 Productivity. Unpublished Working Paper, Malaysia: Multimedia University, 2004.
3. Ahn, S., Good, D., and Sickles, R. C. “Estimation of Long-Run Inefficiency Levels: A Dynamic Frontier Approach.” Econometric Reviews 19 (No. 4 2000): 461-92.
4. Aigner, D. J., Lovell, C. A. K., and Schmidt, P. “Formulation and Estimation of Stochastic Frontier Models.” Journal of Econometrics 6 (No. 1 1977): 21-37.
5. Arrow, K. J. “The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing.” Review of Economic Studies 29 (No. 3 1962): 155-73.
6. Battese, G. E., and Coelli, T. J. “Frontier Production Functions, Technical Efficiency and Panel Data with Application to Paddy Farmers in India.” Journal of Productivity Analysis 3 (Nos. 1-2 1992): 153-69.
7. Coe, D., and Helpman, E. “International R&D Spillovers.” European Economic Review 39 (No. 5 1995): 859-87.
8. Coe, D., Helpman, E., and Alexander, W. “North-South R&D Spillovers.” Economic Journal 107 (No. 440 1997): 134-49.
9. Cornwell, C., Schmidt, P., and Sickles, R. C. “Production Frontiers with Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Variation in Efficiency Levels.” Journal of Econometrics 46 (Nos. 1-2 1990): 185-200.
10. Cuesta, R. A. “A Production Model with Firm-Specific Temporal Variation in Technical Inefficiency: with Application to Spanish Dairy Farms.” Journal of Productivity Analysis 13 (No. 2 2000): 139-58.
11. Daveri, F. “Information Technology and Productivity Growth Across Countries and Sectors.” In D. Jones (ed.), New Economy Handbook. USA: Elsevier, pp. 101-19, 2003.
12. Diao, X., Rattsø, J., and Stokke, H. E. “International Spillovers, Productivity Growth and Openness in Thailand: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis.” Journal of Development Economics 76 (No. 2 2005): 429-50.
13. Dowrick, S., and Nguyen, D. T. “OECD Comparative Economic Growth, 1950-85: Catch-up and Convergence.” American Economic Review 79 (No. 5 1989): 1010-30.
14. Färe, R., Grosskopf, S., Norris, M., and Zhang, Z. “Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries.” American Economic Review 84 (No. 1 1994): 66-83.
15. Fo̸rsund, F., and Hjalmarsson, L. Dynamic Analysis of Structural Change and Productivity Measurement. Unpublished Working Paper, Mimeograph, 2008.
16. Getachew, L., and Sickles, R. C. “The Policy Environment and Relative Price Efficiency of Egyptian Private Sector Manufacturing: 1987/ 88-1995/96.” Journal of the Applied Econometrics 22 (No. 4 2007): 703-28.
17. Gollop, F. M., and Jorgenson, D. W. “U.S. Productivity Growth by Industry, 1947-73. New Developments in Productivity Measurement and Analysis.” In J. W. Kendrick and B. Vaccara (eds.), University of Chicago Press, pp. 17-136, 1980.
18. Good, G. H., Nadiri, M. I., and Sickles, R. C. “Index Number and Factor Demand Approaches to the Estimation of Productivity.” In M. H. Pesaran and P. Schmidt (eds.), Handbook of Applied Economics: Microeconometrics (Chapter 1). Oxford, England: Basil Blackwell, Vol. II, pp. 14-80, 1997. Reprinted as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 5790, Cambridge, MA, 1996.
19. Grosskopf, S., and Self, S. “Factor Accumulation or TFP? A Reassessment of Growth in Southeast Asia.” Pacific Economic Review 11 (No. 1 2006): 39-58.
20. Han, G., Kalirajan, K., and Singh, N. Productivity, Efficiency and Economic Growth: East Asia and the Rest of the World. Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1040, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz, 2003.
21. Hultberg, P., Nadiri, M. I., and Sickles, R. C. “Technology Adaption and Efficiency: A Dynamic Panel Model.” Annales d’Economie et de Statistique, Special Issue on the Econometrics of Panel Data 55-56 (No. 3 1999): 449-74.
22. Hultberg, P., Nadiri, M. “Cross-country Catch-up in the Manufacturing Sector: Impacts of Heterogeneity on Convergence and Technology Adoption.” Empirical Economics 29 (No. 4 2004): 753-68.
23. Jeon, B. M., and Sickles, R. C. “The Role of Environmental Factors in Growth Accounting: A Nonparametric Analysis.” Journal of the Applied Economics 19 (No. 5 2004): 567-91.
24. Jorgenson, D. W., Gollop, F. M., and Fraumeni, B. M. “Productivity and Sectoral Output Growth in the United States.” In J. W. Kendrick (ed.), Interindustry Differences in Productivity Growth. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1987.
25. Kalirajan, K. P., Obwona, M. B., and Zhao, S. “A Decomposition of Total Factor Productivity Growth: The Case of Chinese Agricultural Growth Before and After Reforms.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 78 (No. 2 1996): 331-38.
26. Kim, J. I., and Lau, L. J. “The Sources of Economic Growth in the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries.” Journal of Japanese and International Economics 8 (No. 3 1994): 235-71.
27. Kim, S., and Lee, Y. H. “The Productivity Debate of East Asia Revisited: A Stochastic Frontier Approach.” Applied Economics 38 (No. 14 2006): 1697-1706.
28. Kim, S., Park, J. H., and Sickles, R. C. Is East Asia Growth Productivity-Driven? A Production Frontier with Group-Specific Time Varying Technical Efficiency. Unpublished Working Paper, Mimeograph, 2008.
29. Krugman, P. “The Myth of East Asian Miracle.” Foreign Affairs 73 (No. 6 1994): 28-44.
30. Kumbhakar, S. C. “Production Frontiers, Panel Data and Time-Varying Technical Inefficiency.” Journal of Econometrics 46 (Nos. 1-2 1990): 201-11.
31. Lee, I., and Khatri, Y. Information Technology and Productivity Growth in Asia. IMF Working Paper WP/03/15, 2003.
32. Lee, Y. H., and Schmidt, P. “A Production Frontier Model with Flexible Temporal Variation in Technical Inefficiency.” In H. Fried, C. A. K. Lovell, and S. Schmidt (eds.), The Measurement of Productive Efficiency: Techniques and Applications. New York: Oxford University Press, 1993.
33. Liang, C. Y. “Productivity Growth in the Asian NICs: A Case Study of the Republic of China, 1961-93.” APO Productivity Journal (Winter Edition 1995): 17-40.
34. Liang, C. Y. Industrial Structure Changes and the Measurement of Total Factor Productivity Growth: The Krugman-Kim-Lau-Young Hypothesis Revisited. Working paper of Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, 2006.
35. Lucas, R. E. “On the Mechanics of Economic Development.” Journal of Monetary Economics 22 (No. 1 1988): 3-42.
36. Nelson, R. R., and Wright, G. “The Rise and Fall of American Technology Leadership: The Postwar Era in Historical Perspective.” Journal of Economic Literature 30 (No. 4 1992): 1931-64.
37. Pack, H., and Page, J. “Reply to Alwyn Young.” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 40 (No. 1 1994): 251-57.
38. Pohjola, M. Information Technology, Productivity and Economic Growth. New York: Oxford University Press, 2001.
39. Quah, D. “Technology Dissemination and Economic Growth: Some lessons for the New Economy.” In C. E. Bai and C. W. Yuen (eds.), Technology and the New Economy. Chapter 3, pp. 95-156. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2003.
40. Ramlan, J. Information and Communications Technology: A Study of Its Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia. Ph.D Thesis in Economics in the Faculty of Business and Law, Malaysia: Multimedia University, 2008.
41. Romer, P. M. “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 94 (No. 5 1986): 1002-37.
42. Sachs, J. D., and Warner, A. “Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 26 (No. 1 1995): 1-95.
43. Sickles, R. C., and Streitwieser, M. “Technical Inefficiency and Productive Decline in the U.S. Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Industry Under the U.S. Interstate Natural Gas Policy Act.” In A. Lewin and C. A. K. Lovell (eds.), Journal of Productivity Analysis. Vol. 3, pp. 115-30, and reprinted In R. Thomas, Jr. Gulledge, and C. A. Knox Lovell (eds.), International Applications for Productivity and Efficiency Analysis. Boston: Kluwer Academic, 1992.
44. Sickles, R. C., and Streitwieser, M. “An Analysis of Technology, Productivity, and Regulatory Distortion in the Interstate Natural Gas Transmission Industry: 1977-1985.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 13 (No. 4 1998): 377-95.
45. Siegel, D., and Griliches, Z. “Purchased Services, Outsourcing, Computers, and Productivity in Manufacturing.” In Z. Griliches et al. (eds.), Output Measures in the Services Sectors. NBER Studies in Wealth, Vol. 56, University of Chicago Press, 1994.
46. Simar, L., and Wilson, P. W. “Statistical Inference in Nonparametric Frontier Models: The State of the Art.” Journal of Productivity Analysis 13 (No. 1 2000): 49-78.
47. Smolny, W. “Sources of Productivity Growth: An Empirical Analysis with German Sectoral Data.” Applied Economics 32 (No. 3 2000): 305-14.
48. Stiroh, K. J. Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say? Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports 115, 2001.
49. Stiroh, K. J. “Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: A Review of The Evidence.” Business Economics 37 (No. 1 2002a): 30-37.
50. Stiroh, K. J. “Are ICT Spillovers Driving the New Economy?” Review of Income and Wealth 48 (No. 1 2002b): 33-57.
51. Tanuwidjaja, E. Technology Diffusion: The Case of Information and Communication Technologies. New York: Oxford University Press, 2006.
52. Van Ark, B., Inklaar, R., and McGuckin, R. Changing Gear, Productivity, ICT and Services Industries: Europe and the United States. GGGD Research memorandum No. GD-60, 2002.
53. Young, A. “A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore.” In O. Blanchard and S. Fischer (eds.), NBER Studies in Macroeconomics Annual. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1992.
54. Young, A. “Lessons form the East Asian NICs: A Contrarian View.” European Economic Review 38 (Nos. 3-4 1994): 964-73.
55. Young, A. “The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (No. 3 1995): 641-80.