Seoul Journal of Economics - Vol. 33 , No. 3

[ Article ]
Seoul Journal of Economics - Vol. 33, No. 3, pp.283-305
Abbreviation: SJE
ISSN: 1225-0279 (Print)
Print publication date 31 Aug 2020
Received 29 Feb 2020 Accepted 30 Mar 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22904/sje.2020.33.3.002

The Global Role of the United States and China
M. Ayhan Kose ; Csilla Lakatos ; Franziska Ohnsorge ; Marc Stocker
M. Ayhan Kose, World Bank; Brookings Institution; CEPR; CAMA, Tel: +1-202-473-8350 (akose@worldbank.org)
Csilla Lakatos, World Bank (clakatos@worldbank.org)
Franziska Ohnsorge, World Bank; CEPR; CAMA (fohnsorge@worldbank.org)
Marc Stocker, World Bank (mstocker1@worldbank.org)

JEL Classification: C15, E32, E52, F13, H30, O51


Economic developments in the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, can have effects far beyond their shores. A slowdown in these economies would result in considerably lower global growth transmitted through trade, financial, and commodity market channels. Changing U.S. financial conditions could reverberate across global financial markets, with pronounced effects on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) that rely heavily on external financing. China’s continued deceleration and rebalancing toward domestic consumption and services will likely put downward pressure on commodity prices worldwide and is expected to adversely affect commodity exporters.

Keywords: United States, China, Spillovers, Uncertainty, Trade, Business cycles, Global economy


We thank Carlos Arteta, Eduardo Borensztein, Kevin Clinton, Graham Hacche, Ugo Panizza, Franz Ruch, Christopher Towe, and seminar participants during the 2019 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. Yushu Chen, Shihui Liu, Shijie Shi, and Jinxin Wu provided excellent research assistance. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper will be entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.

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