Current Issue

Seoul Journal of Economics - Vol. 37 , No. 1

[ Article ]
Seoul Journal of Economics - Vol. 33, No. 3, pp. 265-281
Abbreviation: SJE
ISSN: 1225-0279 (Print)
Print publication date 31 Aug 2020
Received 29 Feb 2020 Accepted 17 Mar 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22904/sje.2020.33.3.001

The Causes of Trade Tensions and their Consequences for Financial Stability
Andrew K. Rose
Andrew K. Rose, Dean NUS-Business, on leave from Berkeley-Haas, ABFER senior fellow, CEPR research fellow and NBER research associate, Tel: +65 6516-3075 (bizaro@nus.edu.sg)

JEL Classification: F15, G15


Abstract

I have two objectives in this short paper. First, I explore some of the reasons why the world is currently experiencing so much tension associated with international trade. Second, I discuss some of the consequences of this trade tension for financial stability.


Keywords: Data, Empirical, International, Protection, Soft power

Acknowledgments

This paper was first delivered as a keynote address to the G20 Conference on Global Financial Stability in Seoul in November 2019; all mistakes are mine alone.


References
1. Alcalá, Francisco and Antonio Ciccone. “Trade and Productivity.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 119 (No. 2 2004): 613-646.
2. Alesina, Alberto, Enrico Spolaore, and Romain Wacziarg. “Economic integration and political disintegration.” American Economic Review 90 (No. 5 2000): 1276-1296.
3. Baxter, Marianne, and Michael Kouparitsas. “Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement.” Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (No. 1 2005): 113-157.
4. Boz, Emine, Gita Gopinath and Mikkel Plagborg-Møller. “Global Trade and the Dollar” NBER Working Paper No. 23 (2017): 988.
5. Eichengreen, Barry. “Sequencing RMB Internationalization” CIGI Papers (No. 69 2015).
6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. and David Romer. “Does Trade Cause Growth?” American Economic Review 89 (No. 3, 1999): 379-399.
7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. and Andrew K. Rose. “The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area” Economic Journal 108 (No. 449 1999): 1009-1025.
8. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier and Olivier Jeanne. “The Elusive Gains From International Financial Integration” Review of Economic Studies 73 (No. 3 2006): 715-741.
9. Hall, Robert E. and Charles I. Jones. “Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 114 (No. 1 1999): 83-116.
10. IMF, “Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific: Caught in Prolonged Uncertainty.” (2019) (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/APAC/Issues/2019/10/03/areo1023)
11. McKinnon, Ronald I. The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy 2nd edition, Johns Hopkins university Press (1993).
12. Nye, Joseph. Soft Power 80 (1990): 153-171.
13. Nye, Joseph. Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, Public Affairs (2004).
14. Rodrik, Dani, Arvind Subramanian, and Francesco Trebbi. “Institutions Rule.” Journal of Economic Growth 9 (No. 2 2004): 131-165.
15. Rose, Andrew K. (forthcoming) “Soft Power and Exports.” Review of International Economics and http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose/Orange.pdf; Summarized in “The Economic Cost of Repellent Leadership.” (https://voxeu.org/article/losing-soft-power-lowers-exports)