Seoul Journal of Economics
[ Article ]
Seoul Journal of Economics - Vol. 25, No. 3, pp.279-316
ISSN: 1225-0279 (Print)
Print publication date 31 Aug 2012
Received 05 Dec 2011 Revised 13 Feb 2012 Accepted 06 Apr 2012

Pricing Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds through Static and Dynamic Measures

Daisuke Miyakawa ; Shuji Watanabe
Corresponding Author, Associate Senior Economist, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan, 1-9-3 Otemachi Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0004, Japan, Tel: +81-3-3244-1917, Fax: +81-3-3270-7084 damiyak@dbj.jp
Professor, College of Economics, Nihon University, 1-3-2 Misaki-cho, Chiyodaku, Tokyo 102-8360, Japan, Tel: +81-3-3219-3493, Fax: +81-3-3219-3493 watanabe.shuji@nihon-u.ac.jp

JEL Classification: C23, C58, E44, G12

Abstract

This paper studies the price impact of corporate bond illiquidity. Through dynamic panel estimation, price dispersion and resiliency, which have been used separately in extant studies, are simultaneously considered to price illiquidity. We find that the dynamic model, which has both measures, fits better than the static model that incorporates only price dispersion. We also confirm that the impact of the two measures systematically react to credit ratings of bonds. These results imply the importance of considering multiple measures to price illiquidity.

Keywords:

Bond spreads, Illiquidity, Price dispersion, Persistency

Acknowledgments

We appreciate the highly useful comments provided by Yohei Yamamoto, Kei Kawakami, Hidehiko Ishihara, Tsutomu Watanabe, Hirofumi Uchida, Shigenori Shiratsuka, Fumio Hayashi, and Yusho Kaguraoka. Our thanks also go to the anonymous practitioners in a number of security firms and two anonymous referees for their useful comments and suggestions. We also greatly appreciate Tomonori Matsuki, Takeshi Moriya, and Junpei Kanemitsu for their excellent work as research assistants. The usual disclaimer applies. This paper was previously circulated under the title “Walking after Midnight: Measurements and Pricing Implications of Market Liquidity on Corporate Bonds.”

References

  • Acharya, V. V., and Pedersen, L. H. “Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk.” Journal of Financial Economics 77 (No. 2 2005): 375-410. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.06.007]
  • Amihud, Y. “Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-section and Time-series Effects.” Journal of Financial Markets 5 (No. 1 2002): 31-56. [https://doi.org/10.1016/S1386-4181(01)00024-6]
  • Arellano, M. Panel Data Econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003. [https://doi.org/10.1093/0199245282.001.0001]
  • Arellano, M., and Bond, S. “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.” Review of Economic Studies 58 (No. 2 1991): 277-97. [https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968]
  • Baltagi, B. H. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2008.
  • Banerjee, S., Kaniel, R., and Kremer, I. “Price Drift as an Outcome of Differences in Higher Order Beliefs.” Review of Financial Studies 22 (No. 9 2009): 3707-34. [https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhp014]
  • Banerjee, S., and Kremer, I. “Disagreement and Learning: Dynamic Patterns of Trade.” Journal of Finance 65 (No. 4 2010): 1269-302. [https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01570.x]
  • Bank of International Settlements. “Market Liquidity: Research Findings and Selected Policy Implications.” Report of a Study Group Established by the Committee on the Global Financial System of the Central Banks of the Group of Ten Countries, 1999 (http://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs11.htm, ).
  • Bao, J., Pan, J., and Wang, J. Liquidity of Corporate Bonds. Working Paper, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1106852, , 2008. [https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1106852]
  • Bernanke, B. S., and Blinder, A. S. “The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission.” American Economic Review 82 (No. 4 1992): 901-21.
  • Blundell, R., and Bond, S. “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models.” Journal of Econometrics 87 (No. 1 1998): 115-43. [https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8]
  • Bowsher, C. G. “On Testing Overidentifying Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models.” Economics Letters 77 (No. 2 2002): 211-20. [https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(02)00130-1]
  • Brunnermeier, M. K. “Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 23 (No. 1 2009): 77-100. [https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.23.1.77]
  • Brunnermeier, M. K., and Pedersen, L. H. “Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity.” Review of Financial Studies 22 (No. 6 2009): 2201-38. [https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhn098]
  • Cao, H. H., and Ou-Yang, H. “Differences of Opinion of Public Information and Speculative Trading in Stocks and Options.” Review of Financial Studies 22 (No. 1 2009): 299-335. [https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhn020]
  • Chen, L., Lesmond, D., and Wei, J. “Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity.” Journal of Finance 62 (No. 1 2007): 119-49. [https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01203.x]
  • Cici, G., Gibson, S., and Merrick, J. J. “Missing the Marks? Dispersion in Corporate Bond Valuations across Mutual Funds.” Journal of Financial Economics 101 (No. 1 2011): 206-26. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.02.001]
  • Collin-Dufresne, P., Goldstein, R. S., and Martin, J. S. “The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes.” Journal of Finance 56 (No. 6 2001): 2177-207. [https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00402]
  • Cook, T., and Hahn, T. “The Effect of Changes in the Federal Funds Rate Target on Market Interest Rates in the 1970s.” Journal of Monetary Economics 24 (No. 3 1989): 331-51. [https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90025-1]
  • Dick-Nielsen, J., Feldhütter, P., and Lando, D. “Corporate Bond Liquidity Before and After the Onset of the Subprime Crisis.” Journal of Financial Economics 103 (No. 3 2012): 471-92. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.10.009]
  • Easley, D., and O'Hara, M. “Liquidity and Valuation in an Uncertain World.” Journal of Financial Economics 97 (No. 1 2010): 1-11. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2010.03.004]
  • Edwin J. E., Gruber, M. J., Agrawal, D., and Mann, C. “Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds.” Journal of Finance 56 (No. 1 2001): 247-77. [https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00324]
  • Eom, Y. H., Helwege, J., and Huang, J. “Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis.” Review of Financial Studies 17 (No. 2 2004): 499-544. [https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhg053]
  • Fama, E. F., and French, K. R. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics 33 (No. 1 1993): 3-56. [https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(93)90023-5]
  • Feldhütter, P. “The Same Bond at Different Prices: Identifying Search Frictions and Selling Pressures.” Review of Financial Studies 25 (No. 4 2012): 1155-206. [https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhr093]
  • Fleming, M. J. “Measuring Treasury Market Liquidity.” FRB NY Economic Policy Review, September, 2003.
  • Friedman, B. M., and Kuttner, K. N. “Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?” In J. H. Stock and M. W. Watson (eds.), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 213-249, 1993.
  • Goldreich, D., Hanke, B., and Nath, P. “The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-varying Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market.” Review of Finance 9 (No. 1 2005): 1-32. [https://doi.org/10.1007/s10679-005-2986-x]
  • Holmstrom, B., and Tirole, J. “LAPM: A Liquidity-Based Asset Pricing Model.” Journal of Finance 56 (No. 5 2001): 1837-67. [https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00391]
  • Hongo, Y., and Oyama, S. Nihon no shasai hakkou Spread no hendouyouin (The Determinants of Japanese Corporate Bonds in the Primary Market). BOJ Working Paper Series No. 10-J-10, 2010 ( in Japanese).
  • Houweling, P., Mentink, A., and Vorst, T. “Comparing Possible Proxies of Corporate Bond Liquidity.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29 (No. 6 2005): 1331-58. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2004.04.007]
  • Hsiao, C. Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986.
  • Hsiao, C. Analysis of Panel Data, Second edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
  • Huang, J., and Huang, M. How Much of the Corporate-treasury Yield Spread Is Due to Credit Risk? mimeo, 2003. [https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1494052]
  • Hull, J., Predescu, M., and White, A. “The Relationship between Credit Default Swap Spreads, Bond Yields, and Credit Rating Announcement.” Journal of Banking and Finance 28 (No. 11 2004): 2789-811. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2004.06.010]
  • Hull, J., Predescu, M., and White, A. “Bond Prices, Default Probabilities and Risk Premiums.” Journal of Credit Risk 1 (No. 2 2005): 53-60. [https://doi.org/10.21314/JCR.2005.007]
  • Jarrow, R. A., Lando, D., and Yu, F. Default Risk and Diversification: Theory and Applications. mimeo, 2000. [https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.249452]
  • Kaguraoka, Y. “A Time-varying Common Risk Factor Affecting Corporate Yield Spreads.” European Journal of Finance 16 (No. 6 2010): 527-39. [https://doi.org/10.1080/13518470903037615]
  • Kang, K. “Developing Bond Markets for Sustainable Growth of East Asia.” Seoul Journal of Economics 20 (No. 1 2007): 3-22.
  • Kyle, A. S. “Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading.” Econometrica 53 (No. 6 1985): 1315-35. [https://doi.org/10.2307/1913210]
  • Lesmond, D., Ogden, J., and Trzcinka, C. “A New Estimate of Transaction Costs.” Review of Financial Studies 12 (No. 5 1999): 1113-41. [https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/12.5.1113]
  • Mahanti, S, Nashikkar, A., Subrahmanyam, M., Chacko, G., and Mallik, G. “Latent Liquidity: A New Measure of Liquidity, with an Application to Corporate Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics 88 (No. 2 2008): 272-98. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.02.006]
  • Nakamura, T. “Shasai Spread to ryudosei risk ni tsuite (A Note on Corporate Bond Spreads).” Shoken Analyst Journal (March 2009): 92-103 (in Japanese).
  • Ou, K. Saiken no Sijou Ryudosei no Haaku to Kinyu Kikan no Risk Kanri eno Ouyou (Measuring the Market Liquidity of Corporate Bonds and its Application for Risk Management in Banks). Bank of Japan Working Paper Series No.11-J-2, 2011 (in Japanese).
  • Roll, R. “A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-ask Spread in an Efficient Market.” Journal of Finance 39 (No. 4 1984): 1127-39. [https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb03897.x]
  • Saito, M., Shiratsuka, S., Watanabe, T., and Yanagawa, N. Liquidity Demand and Asset Pricing: Evidence from the Periodic Settlement in Japan. IMES Discussion Paper Series No. 2001-E-21, 2001.
  • Shirasu, Y., and Yonezawa, Y. “Shasai ryutsu shijou ni okeru shasai spread hendo youin no jisshou bunnseki (An Empirical Analysis on the Determinants of Corporate Bond Spreads in the Secondary Market).” Gendai Finance 24 (September 2008): 101-27 (in Japanese).
  • Tychon, P., and Vannetelbosch, V. “A Model of Corporate Bond Pricing with Liquidity and Marketability Risk.” Journal of Credit Risk 1 (No. 3 2005): 3-35. [https://doi.org/10.21314/JCR.2005.018]
  • Watanabe, A., and Watanabe, M. “Time-varying Liquidity Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns.” Review of Financial Studies 21 (No. 6 2008): 2449-86. [https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhm054]